2018 becomes fifth year in a row when India’s south west monsoon has been below normal. In the beginning of monsoon season, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted rains to be normal with rainfall equal to 97 percent of the long term average. However at the end of the season the overall rainfall turned out to be 91 percent, with deficit of 9 percent at national level. However, as we see in this overview, the situation as move from national to local figures, is much different, mostly much worse.
According to IMD’s State Rainfall Map (cumulative) dated 30 Sept. 2018, the country received 804.0 mm rains against 887.5 mm of normal average. Thus the south west monsoon 2018 had 9.4 percent below normal rainfall.
Continue reading “Monsoon 2018 Overview: Serious Anomalies Hidden by Macro Figures”
Himachal Pradesh has received 917.3 mm rainfall during South West Monsoon 2018. The amount is 11 percent higher than normal rainfall category of 825.3 mm. However at district level there is considerable variation in the distribution of rainfall. Out of 12 districts in the state, rainfall departure has been in deficit in three districts namely Chamba, Kinnaur and Lahul & Spiti by 38 percent, 32 percent and 43 per cent respectively. All these three districts are in upper part of Himalaya, the origin of many rivers & where mountains are mostly snow covered.
Continue reading “Himachal Pradesh Monsoon 2018 Overview”
Uttrakhand has received 3% below normal rainfall during South West Monsoon 2018. Though the figure falls in normal category, however district level rainfall data paints a very different picture. Out of total 13 districts in the Himalayan state, four districts namely Almora, Pauri Garhwal, Tehri Garhwal and Udham Singh Nagar have received deficit rains, whereas three districts which includes Bageshwar, Chamoli and Haridwar have got rainfall in excess. Out of the rest six districts four are on marginally positive side and two are on marginally negative side.
Continue reading “Uttarakhand Monsoon 2018 Overview: Rainfall Normal, Distribution Abnormal”
Bundelkhand is known as a drought prone region. It is comprised of 7 districts of Uttar Pradesh and 6 districts of Madhya Pradesh. Monsoon rains are crucial. However for past several years, the region has faced deficit rains leading to water scarcity particularly for agriculture related activities. Let us the situation of of Monsoon rain in Bundelkhand this year.
Bundelkhand is part of Lower Yamuna Basin, for which IMD provides rainfall figures in its river basin wise rainfall maps. This basin received 785.4 mm rainfall in 2018 monsoon, 9% below normal rainfall of 863 mm for this sub basin. IMD needs to provide rainfall figures for each sub basins, including Ken, Betwa, Dhasan etc.
Continue reading “Bundelkhand: Overview of 2018 Monsoon”
As things stand now, Gujarat is facing prospects of a serious water crisis that may extend till at least next average or above average monsoon. State level Rainfall so far this monsoon is 19% below average as on Sept 1. But the state level average hides the local situation.
Some of the districts that have received rainfall with high deficits, as per IMD figures till Sept 1, 2018 include: Kutch: -58%; Patan: -58%; Gandhinagar: -51%; Morbi: -47%; Ahmedabad: -48%; Surendranagar -43%; Banaskantha: -55%; Mehsana: -52%; Devbhoomi Dwarka: -40%. These district level figures indeed show massive rainfall deficit with less than a month of monsoon remaining. Continue reading “Gujarat’s water crisis rooted in years of misplaced priorities”
According to IMD, India is having normal monsoon this year, so far, as per rainfall till date (Sept 1, 2018). Against normal rainfall of 721.1 mm, India has received 676.6 mm rainfall, which is 6.2% below normal, considered within normal rainfall definition as per IMD. So India is having normal monsoon rainfall, says IMD. Let us check this against some ground realities.
However, East and North East India, one of the four regions for which IMD provides rainfall data, has so far had 27% below normal rainfall, while South India had 9% surplus rainfall. Thus, while at all India level, what seems all normal, is average of different, though serious departures from normal rainfall. Let us say this is first level of mirage of normal rainfall. Continue reading “The mirage of normal monsoon”
Maharashtra celebrates Ashadhi Ekadashi today[i], also called Dev Shayani Ekadashi, when god Vishnu went to sleep. Ashadhi Ekadashi is a cultural phenomenon in Maharashtra, holding a special place in the hearts of devotees and atheists alike. This is the day when the Vaari, a travelling caravan of devotees reach Pandharpur, the abode of Pandurang or Vitthal from various places in the state. Pandurang is a special god himself. He is the loving god of the farmers and cattle herders and the toiling masses of the state. People travel to Pandharpur with tradition attire and gaiety. Ashadhi Ekadashi is supposed to fall right in the middle of monsoon as coughing Parineeta told me in the morning, enjoying the Pune rains. She also said that Farmer leader Sharad Joshi used to be unhappy with this festival as farmers left behind their fields right in the sowing season to go for the Pandharpur Vaari, away from their fields for days at end. Festivals are always fun though. Continue reading “Maharashtra Monsoon Musings – July 2018”
We have noticed during just concluded South West monsoon season that IMD (India Meteorological Department) has started a new and welcome feature in rainfall data reporting[i]. The Data is available in maps, on daily, weekly and seasonal basis. We are not sure when this practice started, we noticed it only during 2016 monsoon season.
This is most welcome development, since getting rainfall data at basin level is most appropriate and useful, since basin is the hydrological unit that will experience the impact of rainfall or lack of rainfall in the basin, in form of floods or droughts. It can also be very useful for flood forecasting and preparedness, among many other uses. We hope IMD will develop and refine this further.
In each map, the actual rainfall for the given period is given for each basin, as also the normal rainfall & % departure from normal. Usual colour code is used to show the basin as blue if rainfall is more than 120% of normal rainfall, green if rainfall is 81-119 %, brown if rainfall is 60-80% of normal and yellow if rainfall is below 60% of normal rainfall.
Continue reading “Welcome development: River basin wise rainfall maps from IMD!”
Above: All-India Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall Anomalies during 1871-2015. Note that since 1950s, not only has the incidence of droughts increased, but rainfall in the excess of 10% has also decreased markedly Source: IITM Paper Interanual Variations of Indian Summer Monsoon
When it comes to Global Warming and Climate Change (not interchangeable terms), India and the world have witnessed a series of firsts in the past year. The last 11 months have been the warmest months in recorded history, each monotonously breaking a previous record[i]. In India, regions like Maharashtra including Marathwada have experienced back to back droughts, in addition to increasing frequency of Extreme Weather events like Hailstorms and unseasonal rainfall. Variability of Western Disturbances has increased, which is linked with extensive anthropogenic warming over Tibet[ii]. Our response to Climate Change and the challenges it poses has been far from satisfactory. There has been no impact of National Action Plan for Climate Change, due to the inherent problems in its inception[iii]. State Plans lay languishing for several years, without clear accountability and transparency[iv]. India’s INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) indicate more harm than good.[v] Continue reading “Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll: “Warming Indian Ocean means a Weakening Indian Monsoon””
People of a village in Morigaon district of Assam fish in groups to celebrate ‘Kati Bihu’ on Sunday. The festival is closely related to agriculture, celebrated on the first day of the Kati month of the Assamese calendar. It is that time of the year when paddy grows in the fields and cultivators work hard for a good harvest.— Photo: Ritu Raj Konwar, The Hindu
Continue reading “Dams, Rivers & People News Bulletin Nov 02, 2015 (Festival Fishing on occasion of Kati Bihu in Assam)”