Rainfall

Normal Rains Forecast for India’s SW Monsoon 2022

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has in their first forecast for India’s crucial South West Monsoon (June-Sept) 2022 has forecast[i] that India will receive 99% of Long Period Average (LPA) rain with a model error of +/- 5%. This means that IMD has forecast on April 14, 2022 that India is likely to get normal rainfall (96% to 104% of LPA) rains for the fourth consecutive year. IMD says that currently La Nina conditions are prevailing and are likely to continue during the monsoon.

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Rainfall

District wise Winter 2022 Rainfall in India

In the just concluded Winter Season 2022 (Jan 1 2022 to Feb 28 2022), as per India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 44% above Normal Rainfall (it was 32% below normal rainfall in winter 2021[i]. This is coming on top of almost normal (99.32% of normal rainfall) in SW Monsoon 2021[ii] and 43.54% above normal rainfall in Post Monsoon season 2021[iii].

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Rainfall

Post Monsoon 2021: District wise Rainfall in India

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), during the just concluded Post Monsoon Rainfall for 2021, that included rainfall during Oct-Dec months, India received 177.7 mm rainfall, 43.54% above normal rainfall of 123.8 mm. In the same period last year, India received 124.6 mm rainfall, 0.64% above the normal rainfall. As per IMD[i] definition, the rainfall was in surplus category.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

High Rainfall days in India’s districts in SW Monsoon 2021

An analysis of the daily district wise rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for India’s South West Monsoon 2021 shows that there were 2079 instances when a district rainfall of a day was above 50 mm. Such high rainfall instances included 1712 instances when rainfall was 50-100 mm, 288 instances when it was 100-150 mm, 53 times it was 150-200 mm and 26 times above 200 mm. Out of 694 districts of India, 527 districts or, about 76% of the districts experienced such high rainfall days during SW monsoon 2021.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

Heavy Rainfall in India in Oct-Nov 2021

India has seen rather heavy rainfall in October and November 2021, with October All India Rainfall being 33% above normal and November rainfall being record breaking 86% above normal. The combined Oct + Nov Rainfall was 48% above normal, and by Dec 7, as we write this, it is already 53% above normal for the period from Oct 1 to Dec 7, 2021.

While lingering South West Monsoon brought large part of the excess rainfall in first half of October, the unusually active North East Monsoon with continuous supply of moisture from Bay of Bengal has been the main reason for the high rainfall since late October. The onset of La Nina has also contributed to this and with La Nina forecast to remain in place till March 2022, we are in for continued wet spell in South India, it seems. IMD has already forecast above normal rainfall in South Karnataka during Dec 2021 to Feb 2022.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

High Rainfall days in India’s districts in Sept 2021

An analysis of the daily district wise rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the month of September 2021, the last month of India’s South West Monsoon 2021 shows that there were 489 instances when district rainfall of a day was above 50 mm. The normal monthly rainfall of India for Sept is 170.2 mm and actual rainfall was a huge 34.96% above normal at 229.7 mm[i], the actual average daily rainfall in this month was about 7.66 mm. Such high rainfall instances included 374 instances when rainfall was 50-100 mm, 84 instances when it was 100-150 mm, 20 times it was 150-200 mm and eleven times above 200 mm.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

SW Monsoon 2021: District wise rainfall in India

In the just concluded South West Monsoon 2021, India received 874.6 mm rainfall, about 99.32% of the Normal SW Monsoon rainfall or just 0.68% less than the normal SW Monsoon rainfall of 880.6 mm as per India Meteorological department. This rainfall will now be categorised as normal rainfall though till the beginning of Sept 2021, the rainfall at national level was 10% below normal. The massive 34.96% surplus rainfall in Sept 2021, thanks to a number of circulations contributed from the Bay of Bengal, ending with Cyclone Gulab and now possibly Cyclone Shaheen has contributed to wipe out the deficit.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

High Rainfall days in India’s districts in August 2021

An analysis of the daily district wise rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the month of Aug 2021, 3rd month of India’s South West Monsoon 2021 shows that there were 431 instances when district rainfall of a day was above 50 mm. The normal monthly rainfall of India Aug is 258.2 mm and actual rainfall was a huge 24.13% below normal at 195.9 mm[i], the actual average daily rainfall in this month was about 6.45 mm. Such high rainfall instances included 371 instances when rainfall was 50-100 mm, 48 instances when it was 100-150 mm, 11 times it was 150-200 mm and just once above 200 mm. Interestingly, in June 2021[ii] and July 2021[iii] there were seven instances when rainfall was above 200 mm, when the rainfall is supposed to be much below July rainfall. As noted in detailed article[iv], the July 2021 rainfall all over India was 6.7% below normal.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

June-Aug 2021: District wise rainfall in India’s SW Monsoon

In the just concluded month of August 2021, the rainfall in India was a massive 24.13% below normal. Actual rainfall  was 195.9 mm, compared to normal rainfall of 258.2 mm, as per figures from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Contrast this with the rainfall in August last year, at 327 mm, was 26.6% above normal, ,and 44 year high. Even in July 2021, the rainfall was much higher at 266.1 mm, 6.73% below normal. In June 2021, the rainfall was 182.9 mm (10.96% above normal), not much below the August 2021 rainfall, when August is supposed to have much higher rainfall than June.

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Monsoon · Rainfall

July 2021: High Rainfall days in India’s districts

An analysis of the daily district wise rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the month of July 2021, the 2nd month of India’s South West Monsoon 2021 shows that there were 717 instances when district rainfall of a day was above 50 mm. [Considering that the normal monthly rainfall of India July is 285.3 mm, the average daily rainfall in this month is about 9.2 mm.] Such high rainfall instances included 595 instances when rainfall was 50-100 mm, 98 instances when it was 100-150 mm, 17 times it was 150-200 mm and 7 times above 200 mm. Interestingly, in June 2021[i] too there were seven instances when rainfall was above 200 mm, when the rainfall is supposed to be much below July rainfall. As noted in detailed article[ii], the July 2021 rainfall all over India was 6.7% below normal.

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