India has seen rather heavy rainfall in October and November 2021, with October All India Rainfall being 33% above normal and November rainfall being record breaking 86% above normal. The combined Oct + Nov Rainfall was 48% above normal, and by Dec 7, as we write this, it is already 53% above normal for the period from Oct 1 to Dec 7, 2021.
While lingering South West Monsoon brought large part of the excess rainfall in first half of October, the unusually active North East Monsoon with continuous supply of moisture from Bay of Bengal has been the main reason for the high rainfall since late October. The onset of La Nina has also contributed to this and with La Nina forecast to remain in place till March 2022, we are in for continued wet spell in South India, it seems. IMD has already forecast above normal rainfall in South Karnataka during Dec 2021 to Feb 2022.
India received 957.6 mm rainfall in Just concluded South West Monsoon 2020, during the scheduled 4 month monsoon from June 1 to Sept 30, 2020. This is 8.74% above normal monsoon rainfall of 880.6 as per India Meteorological Department (IMD). This is considered ABOVE NORMAL rainfall, since rainfall is in the range 4-10% above Normal rainfall. This sounds good at national level, but the situation on ground could be very different, if we see the rainfall across the country.
It is noteworthy as per even IMD, monsoon has not yet withdrawn from most parts of the country. But IMD closes its monsoon rainfall account at 0830 hours on Sept 30, so all rainfall after that hour has to be counted in “Post Monsoon” rainfall book, even though the rainfall is very much part of monsoon as per IMD.
During the just concluded first half of the South West Monsoon 2020, India received 453.3 mm rainfall, just 1.1 mm above the normal rainfall of 452.2 mm during the period. The Surplus of 18% rainfall that India received in June 2020 has thus been wiped out by the 9.9% deficit in July rainfall. Normal rainfall in July 2020 is 285.3 mm, while actual rainfall was 257.1 mm. IMD does not provide monthly figures of rainfall for different states, sub divisions and river basins, which it should along with comparison with respect to normal rainfall and rainfall last year.
According to IMD, India is having normal monsoon this year, so far, as per rainfall till date (Sept 1, 2018). Against normal rainfall of 721.1 mm, India has received 676.6 mm rainfall, which is 6.2% below normal, considered within normal rainfall definition as per IMD. So India is having normal monsoon rainfall, says IMD. Let us check this against some ground realities.
However, East and North East India, one of the four regions for which IMD provides rainfall data, has so far had 27% below normal rainfall, while South India had 9% surplus rainfall. Thus, while at all India level, what seems all normal, is average of different, though serious departures from normal rainfall. Let us say this is first level of mirage of normal rainfall. Continue reading “The mirage of normal monsoon”→
On October 28, 2015, the government of Andhra Pradesh declared drought in 196 mandals in seven of the thirteen districts of the state. Having seen the serious discrepancies (between IMD and state government) in the rainfall figures of districts in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh where the respective state governments declared drought earlier, we decided to check the same for these seven districts of AP too. The IMD figures for the monsoon (June 1 to Sept 30) rainfall for these seven districts are given in terms of Normal Rainfall, Actual Rainfall and how much actual rainfall departure was there from Normal Rainfall. During 2015 monsoon, IMD figures say that Coastal Andhra Pradesh (nine districts, three of which are declared drought affected now) received 642 mm rainfall, compared to normal rainfall of 581.1 mm, so a surplus of 10%. Rayalseema (comprising of four districts, all drought hit now) received 358.3 mm rainfall, 10% below the normal figure of 398.3 mm. In the previous year, both regions had 23% deficient rainfall, with actual rainfall of 448.7 mm in Coastal AP and 308.6 mm in Rayalseema. Continue reading “Discrepancies in rainfall figures for Andhra Pradesh’s drought hit districts”→
The national media seems to be celebrating linking of Godavari and Krishna River in Andhra Pradesh on September 16, 2015 as the first major step towards Inter Linking of Rivers in India. An emotional Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Shri N Chandrababu Naidu called it historic and Pavitra Sangam (Holy Confluence).
OPEN LETTER TO HON. CHIEF MINISTER OF MAHARASHTRA:
Water Diversion from Krishna basin by Koyna and Tata Dams:
Maharashtra is violating Human Rights, National & State Water Policy
August 18, 2015
Dear Shri Devendra Fadnavis,
As we all know, large parts of Maharashtra, including Marathawada and Western Maharashtra (part of IMD division called Madhya Maharashtra) are in the grip of biggest monsoon deficit in the country with deficits of 48% and 33% respectively at the end of August 17, 2015 as per IMD. Even beyond the state border, North Interior Karnataka has monsoon deficit of 45%, Rayalseema 36% and Telangana 23%.
Farmers in all these regions are in distress, rainfed Kharif crop, the only crop for most of them, may have been jeopardised for almost all of them. Most of the reservoirs have paltry storages, the biggest in the Krishna basin, Ujani in Maharashtra and Nagarjunsagar in Telangana (also catering to parts of Andhra Pradesh) have zero % in live storage, Srisailam has paltry 9%. Millions of farmers and people are facing the prospects of livelihood loss and severe water scarcity.
While the situation is this serious in Krishna River Basin and adjoining basins, in Maharashtra, huge amounts of water is being diverted from the Krishna basin to the water surplus Konkan region which has seen close to 1600 mm rainfall already. This westward diversion of water from the east flowing Krishna-Bhima basin ultimately takes the water to Arabian Sea, while the Krishna basin, which should have the first right over this water, remains plunged in massive water scarcity. Krishna basin is thus being deprived of its water. Continue reading “Open Letter to Chief Minister of Maharashtra: Stop Westwards diversion of water from Krishna basin”→
At least six of the 34 Meteorological divisions of India seems to be facing the prospects of crop failure and drought, if we look at the rainfall in these divisions in last 18 prime monsoon days from June 25, 2015 (monsoon had set in almost all over India by that date) to July 13, 2015, the latest date for which division wise rainfall are available. In these six sub-divisions, the rainfall during these 18 prime monsoon days has been between 0.1 mm to 12.8 mm. Continue reading “Six regions of India facing prospects of crop failure and drought?”→