Indian Express, one of the India’s leading and most respected National Newspapers, has an editorial on the above subject on June 17, 2019. The Edit has some rather dire warnings: “If current conditions persist — the US Climate Prediction Center has forecast an 81 per cent chance of El Nino, the abnormal warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean waters known to adversely impact rainfall in India, continuing till July and 66 per cent up to August — kharif crop production will take a hit.”
The monsoon, after its rather reluctant entry into Kerala, so far is already 43% deficit till June 17. Out of 36 meteorological divisions, 18 had large (over 60%) deficiency and 13 more had 20-60% deficiency, so 31 of 36 sub divisions already faced over 20% rainfall deficit. If the El Nino prediction of US Climate Centre comes true, we could be in for meteorological, agricultural and even hydrological drought, considering our water management situation.