IMD’s 1st Long Range Forecast for SW Monsoon 2020 on Apr 15, 2020[i] says:
– Rainfall will be normal (100% of LPA: Long Period Average of 88 cm). IMD says Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation prevails in Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail in Indian Ocean, likely to remain throughout the monsoon as per most models, some indicate weak La Nina conditions in Pacific Ocean in second half of monsoon.
– FORECAST BASED ON MONSOON MISSION COUPLED FORECASTING MODEL There is high probability (70%) of monsoon rainfall being above average to excess (over 104% of normal)
– FORECAST BASED ON OPERATIONAL STATISTICAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM: 9% probability of Deficient monsoon (Over 10% below normal); 20% probability of below normal (90-96% of normal) rainfall; 41% probability of normal monsoon (96-104% of normal rains); 21% probability of above normal (104-110% of LPA rains) and 9% probability of excess (over 110% of normal) rains.