India Meteorological Department (IMD) Flash Flood Bulletin (FFB) at 11.30 hours on Sept 1 2024[i] for “24 hours Outlook for Flash Flood Risk till 0530 hrs of 02-09-2024” includes large number of Narmada valley districts of MP. All this water is likely to come to Sardar Sarovar Dam as Big upstream dams like Bargi (96% full), Tawa (94%), Indira Sagar (97%) and Omkareshwar (72%) are all almost full and the soil in the Narmada basin is already almost fully saturated, all figures from the daily reservoir bulletin of Narmada Control Authority as on Aug 29 2024 (https://nca.gov.in/dailyreports.htm).
At the same time, Sardar Sarovar Dam (SSD) is also 77% full with water level steady around 134.36 m. Sardar Sarovar dam releases has reduced from 6000 cumecs (Cubic Meters Per second) on Aug 30 evening to now (12 noon on Sept 1) less than 2500 cumecs. In fact earlier on Aug 26, the releases had reached upto 11800 cumecs, which the river was able to carry without creating flood disaster.
The water level of Narmada river downstream of SSD at Gurudeshwar is (at 3 pm, Sept 1 2024) 16.45 m, way below the danger level of 31.09 m. Water level of Narmada River at Bharuch, further downstream from Garudeshwar is currently (3 pm, Sept 1) is at 3.25 m with downwards trend as against danger level of 7.315 m. These levels show that there is huge scope for increasing the water releases from SSD without creating any risk of floods downstream.
So there is huge scope for increasing the outflows from SSD to create room in the reservoir for the additional inflows that is bound to come to SSD in the next few days due to the flash floods already likely in the MP districts as per IMD FFB. In addition, additional rains that is likely in Narmada catchment in Madhya Pradesh in coming days as forecast by IMD due to the developing low pressure areas.
Madhya Pradesh districts included in IMD FFB: Narshimapura, Dewas, Dhar, Harda, Khandwa, Raisen, Sehore and Hoshangabad districts.
Thus it is necessary that water releases from SSD are immediately increased, else, like in Sept 2023[ii] (and also in 2019 and 2020[iii]), SSD could end up bringing avoidable flood disaster in the downstream Gujarat areas. This will create additional space in SSD to absorb the higher inflows into SSD likely in coming days.
In upstream Madhya Pradesh Narmada basin, Indira Sagar dam, the largest dam in Narmada Valley,is steady at 261.62 m, close to FRL (Full Reservoir Level) of 262.13m.
Omkareshwar dam level is steady at 195 m, close to FRL of 196.6 m.
Bargi dam level is steady at 422.5m, close to FRL of 422.76 m.
Tawa dam level is steady at 354.94 m, close to FRL of 355.4 m. All the hydrographs given here are from CWC’s Flood Forecasting website, as on Sept 1 2024 (https://ffs.india-water.gov.in/#/main/site).
So all these dams have very little capacity to absorb additional inflows likely in coming days. In fact, all these dams seems to be violating the rule curves and also prudent dam management. These dams also need to start releasing water immediately to create space for the likely inflows in coming days and inflows as predicted by IMD in FFB mentioned above and also other forecasts about developing low pressure area.
The CWC 7-day forecast for SSD and Indira Sagar Dam as on Sept 1 2024 also confirms that inflows into respective dams is going to reach a peak on Sept 3 2024, several times the inflow on Sept 1.
Thus there is urgent need to start releasing water from the Narmada Valley Dams to create space to absorb the likely inflows. These advance actions will help flood management in next couple of weeks, and avoid unnecessary flood disasters. We hope Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh governments, Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Limited, Narmada Control Authority, Central Water Commission, CWC’s flood forecasting division and Union Jal Shakti Ministry will act urgently. SANDRP has already tweeted earlier today (Sept 1 2024) tagging all these agencies.
https://twitter.com/Indian_Rivers/status/1830125202484695342
SANDRP (ht.sandrp@gmail.com)
[i] https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/flashFloodBulletin.php
[ii] https://sandrp.in/2023/09/17/unaccountable-sardar-sarovar-operators-again-bring-avoidable-floods-in-downstream-gujarat/, https://sandrp.in/2023/09/20/avoidable-flood-disaster-from-unaccountable-sardar-sarovar-operation-why-was-river-bed-power-house-stopped-since-sept-6/, https://sandrp.in/2023/09/17/%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%a6%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%b0-%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%b0%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%b5%e0%a4%b0-%e0%a4%ac%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%81%e0%a4%a7-%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%82%e0%a4%9a%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%b2%e0%a4%a8-%e0%a4%95/, https://sandrp.in/2023/09/20/%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%a6%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%b0-%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%b0%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%b5%e0%a4%b0-%e0%a4%aa%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%bf%e0%a4%af%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%9c%e0%a4%a8%e0%a4%be-%e0%a4%a8%e0%a4%bf%e0%a4%b0/
[iii] https://sandrp.in/2020/09/02/sardar-sarovar-creates-avoidable-flood-disaster-in-bharuch/, https://sandrp.in/2020/09/13/how-ssnnl-violated-its-own-flood-memorandum-2020-during-recent-ssd-induced-floods/
SANDRP 