A Rapid Hazard Assessment Report by Dr Jakob Steiner a postdoc fellow at the Institute of Geography and Spatial Research, University of Graz, Austria (jakob.steiner@uni-graz.at) and Amrit Thapa a doctoral student at University of Alaska Fairbanks (aamritjnu@gmail.com). A Hindi version of this report can be seen here.
Location: Kunwari, Bageshwar, Uttarakhand
Country: India
Lat: 30.088337°N – Lon: 79.808685°E – Elevation: 1793 m a.s.l.
Date: May 2022 – November 2024 (ongoing)
Hazard type: Landslide, landslide dammed lake
Imagery: (Source: Planet SuperDove)
Preliminary process understanding: After an initial landslide in 2013 at Kunwari Village, repeated landslides until 2022 caused the Baura Gad (also known as Shabhu or Shambhu Gad) to dam repeatedly with subsequent drainages[1] [2]. Landslides in 2022 (Bisht et al., 2022), which took away at least 5 houses of the Kunwari Village, caused the lake to form again to a size of 24000 m2 (by July 2024), which subsequently did not drain anymore.
By August 2024 the lake had grown to twice the size and displacement of the landslide over two months was 150 m. Between August and November 2024 the lake growth has ceased (but due to the massive debris deposits, the lake has also not decreased in size likely due to increased blockage), however displacement has continued by another 50 m. InSAR analysis conducted using Sentinel-1 data acquired from ascending orbits suggests displacement rate of the mountain slope by 0.1 m per year in the line of sight direction during the recent 12 months .
Impact: The initial landslide has caused a lake to form before 2022, which repeatedly drained. Since 2022 drainage is no longer possible and it has increased in size by November 2024. Large parts of the Kunwari Village have been destroyed and are likely to continue to be affected in the coming months.
Climate change context: Unclear.
Socioeconomic risk context: Road construction is apparent across the area of slope failures and potentially exacerbates the risk.
Early warning: Not in place.
Potential for recurring events: It is likely that the slope movement will continue and pick up in speed again during monsoon 2025, with further large mass movements, potentially further increasing the lake.
Similar events/frequency: The location is just south of Tapovan, where in 2021 a massive rock-ice avalanche resulted in a high impact debris flow (Shugar et al., 2021).
Literature context: Bisht, M. P. S., Bisht, H., Luirei, K., Mehta, M., & Kumar, V. (2022). Kuwari Lake: Potentially Dangerous for Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF). Journal of the Geological Society of India, 98(12), 1728–1730. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-022-2243-3
Shugar, D. H., Jacquemart, M., Shean, D., Bhushan, S., Upadhyay, K., Sattar, A., Schwanghart, W., McBride, S., Vries, M. V. W. de, Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Deschamps-Berger, C., McDonnell, M., Bhambri, R., Allen, S., Berthier, E., Carrivick, J. L., Clague, J. J., Dokukin, M., … Westoby, M. J. (2021). A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh4455
Note: Displacement of landslide is the distance that a mass of soil or rock on a slope moves down under the force of gravity. It is a key indicator of a landslide’s stability and evolution. Accurate prediction of landslide displacement is important for early warning and risk management, which can help reduce the loss of life and property caused by landslides.
Kunwari (also spelt as Kuwari, Kuwanri) village is located in the Kapkot tehsil of Bageshwar district on the right bank of the Shambhu river also known as Baura Gad tributary of the Pinder River. It is situated at an elevation of 2,350 meters. The area is prone to rock fall and debris slides due to the rocky outcrops and colluvium slope mantle.
Some relevant information: 1 SANDRP has also published a blog covering the landslide dam incident on Shambhu river in June 2022 which can be seen here.
2 May 2024 E TV Bharat report suggests beginning of landslide lake there.
3 ETV Bharat report on formation of landslide lake on Shambhu river in July 2023.
4 Dainik Jagran June 2022 report mentioned that administration identified about 75 landslide affected families for rehabilitation in Kunwari village, received funds to relocate 18 families and started shifting about a dozen families.
5 This Amar Ujala report covers the formation of landslide lake on Shambhu river in May 2018.
[1] https://multibriefs.com/briefs/iaeg/ShubhamChaudhary.pdf
[2] https://ndem.nrsc.gov.in/documents/Disaster_Document/2022/UK/Kunwari_landslide_lake_Uttarakhand.pdf
SANDRP 